RECENT POSTS
RECENT BLOG POSTS
A New Chance for the World Bank
October 11th, 2022
Project Syndicate — The World Bank should be a major vehicle for crisis response, post-conflict reconstruction, and, most importantly, for supporting the huge investments necessary for sustainable and healthy global development. To realize this potential, those attending the Bank’s meeting this week need to step up and do the right thing. READ MORE
What the Fed should do next on inflation
The debate over U.S. monetary policy is in a new phase. There is no longer any question that the Fed allowed itself to fall way behind the curve in the second half of 2021 and early 2022, calling its credibility into question. It is equally clear that, as its critics urged, the Fed has since moved aggressively to contain inflation by raising rates and quantitatively tightening. After these steps, along with the president’s releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and some good luck, the Fed has regained its credibility as an inflation fighter.
Unfortunately, all major reductions in inflation in the past 70 years have been associated with recessions. It should come as no surprise that many economists, including me, expect a recession to begin in 2023. Historical experience as encapsulated in the proposition known as the Sahm Rule demonstrates that whenever U.S. unemployment rises by more than half a percent within a read more