Response to Marc Andreessen on Secular Stagnation

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Marc Andreessen’s thoughtful “Tweetstorm” on secular stagnation raises a number of important questions.  We are in agreement that the essence of the secular stagnation issue is not whether technology has stopped advancing; but rather whether there is a mismatch between desired saving and investment opportunities that results in low equilibrium real interest rates, precipitates financial instability, and may inhibit economic growth. Here I respond to his specific questions and criticisms regarding the secular stagnation hypothesis: Read more

U.S. economy is not growing fast enough

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In an interview on January 9, 2015 with CNBC’s Squawk Box, Summers said while American economic growth is getting better and leads the rest of the world, investments need to be made to get the economy stronger. “Confidence is the cheapest form of stimulus,” he said. Read more

Asiaphoria Meets Regression to the Mean

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In an NBER working paper, published with Lant Pritchett in October 2014, Summers writes, “consensus forecasts for the global economy over the medium and long term predict the world’s economic gravity will substantially shift towards Asia and especially towards the Asian Giants, China and India. While such forecasts may pan out, there are substantial reasons that China and India may grow much less rapidly than is currently anticipated.   Read more

TIME: What I’m Thankful For

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As I am thankful for my family and its tradition of loving argument, I am thankful for the privilege of living in and serving a nation grounded in a commitment to reasoned discourse.  Read more

The Economist: Even dragons tire

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The announcement this week that China’s economy had grown by 7.3% in the third quarter year-on-year was widely seen as marking the country’s “new normal” of slower growth, according to an October 25, 2014 Economist article. It was well below the roughly 10% pace China had averaged from 1980 until two years ago. Yet according to a new working paper by Lant Pritchett and Larry Summers of Harvard University, it is still abnormal: Chinese growth is likely to be lower still in future. Read more

FOX: Europe in danger of following path of Japan

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In an interview with Maria Bartiromo on FOX News’ Sunday Morning Futures on October 19, 2014, Summers discussed the state of the global economy and said, “Europe is in danger of following the path of Japan from the 90s onward.” Read more

NPR: Worry about Deflation not Inflation

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In an interview on October 16, 2014 with NPR’s Here & Now, Summer told Jeremy Hobson, “We need to worry about deflation not inflation.” Read more

Debt Management and Zero Lower Bound

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On September 30, 2014, Summers presented a co-authored paper titled, “Government Debt Management at the Zero Lower Bound,” at the Brookings Institute in Washington, DC.  Read more

Need comprehensive tax reform

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In an interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin of CNBC’s Squawk Box on September 26, 2014, Summers called for comprehensive tax reform.  Summers also discussed income inequality, asset bubbles and tax inversions with Sorkin. Read more

Push for Domestic Financing for Health

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Summers spoke to the United Nations General Assembly on Monday, September 22, 2014 and called for low and middle income countries to increase their spending on health.  Summers said, “Just 1 percent of their economic growth over the next two decades would fund the grand convergence.” Read more

US needs a comprehensive growth strategy

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In an interview with Maria Bartiromo on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures on September 21, 2014, Summers talked about the state of the economy, job creation, energy policy and Ukraine.  Summers told Bartiromo,”Our focus has got to be on increasing the rate of growth.” Read more

Scottish independence “grave mistake”

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In a interview with CNBC on September 12, 2014 at the YES Conference in Kiev, Summers said, “It would be a grave mistake for Scotland to leave.” Read more

Future of US Energy & Climate Security

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“I believe that the question of whether the United States should have a substantially more permissive policy with respect to the export of crude oil and with respect to the export of natural gas is easy,”  Summers told a Brookings Institute audience on September 9, 2014. “The answer is affirmative.” Read more

NYTimes: Europe is at risk of secular stagnation

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In a front page, New York Times story on August 30, 2014, Summer’s says, “Europe is at risk of secular stagnation.”  He added, “There is little chance that reasonable and rapid growth is going to return to the Eurozone.”  The article concluded, “A greatly diminished Europe will mean that the US will increasingly lack its best partners.” Read more

Secular Stagnation: facts, causes and cures

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Summers contributed a chapter, “Reflections on the New Secular Stagnation Hypothesis,” to the new Vox eBook, “Secular Stagnation: facts, causes and cures.” Read more

Bibliophiles

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In the Sunday Boston Globe books section, Summers discusses his reading habits in a “Bibliophiles” piece.  He says, “My mother used to take us to the public library every week or two and that set the habit.” Read more

Secular Stagnation Q&A in The New Republic

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In a July 2014 interview with the New Republic, Summers discusses secular stagnation and says, the economy hasn’t grown rapidly “in a financially sustainable way” for a long time. Read more

The Economic Challenge of the Future: Jobs

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On the 125th Anniversary of the Wall Street Journal, Summers wrote an essay on July 7, 2014 on the economic challenge of the future: Jobs.  Summers said the economic challenge of the future will not be producing enough. It will be providing enough good jobs. The piece concludes, “the challenge for economic policy will increasingly be generating enough work for all who need work for income, purchasing power and dignity.”  Read more

Aspen Ideas Festival

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Professor Summers participated in two sessions during the Aspen Ideas Festival.  On Tuesday, July 1, 2014 he held a discussion titled, “What does the future hold for our economy.”  On Monday, June 30, 2014, he had a conversation with Drew Faust about the future of universities. Read more

CNBC: Economy Could Accelerate

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At the Aspen Ideas Festival on June 30, 2014, Summers told CNBC’s Closing Bell, “There’s a prospect that the economy could accelerate quite substantially over the next couple of quarters.”  He went on to say, “That would be an important and obviously positive development,” [there’s] no assurance that will be the case, but I think that could be a surprise.” Read more