Yesterday, in the Wall Street Journal, Marty Feldstein argues reasonably that conventional price indices underestimate real income growth because they take inadequate account of quality improvements and new products. Marty asserts very plausibly that properly measured real incomes and wages have not been completely stagnant in recent decades. Read more
Ben Bernanke has inaugurated his blog with a set of thoughtful observations on the determinants of real interest rates (see his post here) and the secular stagnation hypothesis that I have invoked in an effort to understand recent macroeconomic developments. I agree with much of what Ben writes and would highlight in particular his recognition that the Fed is in a sense a follower rather than a leader with respect to real interest rates – since they are determined by broad factors bearing on the supply and demand for capital – and his recognition that equilibrium real rates appear to have been trending downward for quite some time. His challenges to the secular stagnation hypothesis have helped me clarify my thinking and provide an opportunity to address a number of points where I think there has been some confusion in the public debate. Read more
