Larry Summers' blog

Larry’s new blog


Over the summer, I have expanded my website to include a new blog that will enable me to comment on economic policy issues and current events more generally.  I will continue to write my monthly Financial Times/Washington Post column, and their websites will also feature my blog content.  This blog will enable me to address issues immediately, informally, and at varying lengths and to pose questions that I think economists have inadequately considered.   It will also provide an opportunity to disseminate various commentaries and discussions that I present at conferences.

As I have often noted, policymakers in political environments are most constructive when they find approaches that are appealing from a variety of perspectives and command widespread support.  Academics, on the other hand, are most useful when they provoke thought and debate and present new approaches.  In that spirit, I will regard this venture as successful only if it incites disagreement and debate.  My goal will often be to expose fallacy or misguided opinion.  However, I shall never try to impugn the motives of those with whom I disagree.

Comments and questions are welcome, but we will only be able to select a few to post with each blog.  I may, from time to time, respond to questions or comments in a new blog posting, but will not be able to respond to each individual comment received.

I hope you will find some interesting ideas in this new blog and share it with your colleagues and friends.


Thoughts on Ukrainian Debt Restructuring


I was very glad to see Ukraine reach a deal involving reduction in the principal value of its debt with major creditors. This would not have happened without the tenacity and determination of Ukrainian finance minister, Natalie Jaresko, and Ukraine’s political leadership. Congratulations also to the IMF and the U.S. Treasury for their strong efforts. continue

The Astonishing Returns of Investing in Global Health R&D


By Lawrence H. Summers and Gavin Yamey

How to reach a “grand convergence” by 2035

We have a once-in-human-history opportunity to achieve a “grand convergence” in global health—a reduction in infectious, maternal, and child deaths down to universally low levels everywhere on the planet. continue

Tomorrow Greece votes


Tomorrow Greece votes. No one can know the outcome yet. Indeed, my bet is that a third of the voters are not yet sure how they will vote. If polls could not get the British election right, I doubt that they can get this one right. Anything can happen, and it would not surprise me if the vote is a landslide, one way or the other. continue

Comments from ECB Conference


I commend Mario Draghi and the ECB for their openness in hosting this conference and allowing the presentation of so many perspectives. In the spirit of that openness I shall offer some iconoclastic observations. continue

Feldstein Argues Price Indices Underestimate Real Income Growth


Yesterday, in the Wall Street Journal, Marty Feldstein argues reasonably that conventional price indices underestimate real income growth because they take inadequate account of quality improvements and new products.  Marty asserts very plausibly that properly measured real incomes and wages have not been completely stagnant in recent decades. continue

Rethinking Secular Stagnation After Seventeen Months


IMF Rethinking Macro III Conference

I am glad to be here and I salute Olivier (Blanchard) and the IMF for so open a dialogue on so wide a range of macroeconomic hypotheses. What I want to do this morning is talk about three things: I want to tell you why I think that the risk of secular stagnation is an important problem throughout the developed world. I want to contrast the secular stagnation viewpoint with two views that I regard as heavily overlapping – the debt super‐cycle view that Ken Rogoff put forward and the savings glut view that Ben Bernanke has put forward – and explain why I think they’re very similar, but insofar as their nuances of difference, I prefer the secular stagnation view. And then I want to reflect on the policy implications of this general view of the global economy over the next decade. continue

On Secular Stagnation: A Response to Bernanke


Ben Bernanke has inaugurated his blog with a set of thoughtful observations on the determinants of real interest rates (see his post here) and the secular stagnation hypothesis that I have invoked in an effort to understand recent macroeconomic developments.  I agree with much of what Ben writes and would highlight in particular his recognition that the Fed is in a sense a follower rather than a leader with respect to real interest rates –  since they are determined by broad factors bearing on the supply and demand for capital – and his recognition that equilibrium real rates appear to have been trending downward for quite some time.  His challenges to the secular stagnation hypothesis have helped me clarify my thinking and provide an opportunity to address a number of points where I think there has been some confusion in the public debate. continue